The Future of Trucking: A Strategic Outlook. Smart TMS helps midsize and large fleets replace outdated systems, automate operations, and gain competitive edge through AI, integration, and optimization.

Trucking Management Systems (TMS), which streamline operations and reduce process costs for fleets have evolved rapidly in the last decade. These newer software applications known in this paper as Smart TMSs not only save fleet owners valuable time and money but also enhances overall efficiency by automating menial and repetitive tasks that increase as fleet sizes grow. In addition, the digitization of business processes is poised to transform the country’s trucking carrier base, providing an advantageous position for early adopters while presenting existential threats for those lagging behind.

At the industry level, the adoption of modern STMS will pave the way toward a more seamlessly connected and efficient national transportation system, serving as the cornerstone of America’s world-leading supply chains and robust economy. Transporting more than 70% of the nation’s freight, the trucking industry is crucial to the everyday lives of Americans. Yet, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities and accelerated the need for change if many trucking businesses will continue to survive at scale.

Technology has changed key aspects of the trucking industry, with three main stages. The first stage was the development of Transportation Management Systems (TMS) as enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems for large fleets in the 1980s. Rudimentary TMS software created the benefit of digital records for large fleets. After the slow development of TMS, mobile technologies gained traction in the mid-2010s, allowing both brokers and operators to digitize. The third stage arrived in 2016, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) implemented mandatory Electronic Logging Device (ELD) regulations to enforce driver hours of service and improve safety. Connecting directly to the truckers’ Onboard Diagnostics (OBD) port, these ELDs gathered important information including drivers' hours of service, speed, locations, odometer miles, fuel levels and much more. With few exceptions, ELDs became mandatory across the country in December 2019.

mage of a graph with three orange bars and a blue bar superimposed on the first bar, showing the number of trucking companies by size and market share by revenue

Data from AT Kearney (Figure 1) shows that medium and large-sized trucking companies combine to represent 72% of the market share by revenue in the American trucking industry. In particular, large-sized fleet owners spend excessive time on repetitive tasks like duplicate data entry. Siloed data across multiple applications hinders a holistic business view, leading to errors and limiting the ability to focus on growth-related tasks. Poor integration across technology tools, including TMS software, presents a significant opportunity for future improvement across the American trucking industry.

Unlike rudimentary TMS integrations with other solutions, Smart Transportation Management Software (STMS) tends to be purpose-built to connect operational tasks, creating an efficient workflow. By verticalizing a stack of disparate technologies, STMSs lay the foundation for automating essential yet repetitive work. With connected workflows consolidating data, fleet owners gain a holistic view of their business, enabling the application of advanced analytics, including machine learning (ML), for better decision making. STMSs present a significant opportunity for trucking companies of all sizes to streamline operations and evolve into data-centric organizations, propelling their businesses into the future.

Bar chart illustrating the future of the trucking industry, with truck driver demand from 2011 to 2021 in orange bars and projections from 2022 to 2029 in black, highlighting annual driver shortages

Trucking Management Systems (TMS), which streamline operations and reduce process costs for fleets have evolved rapidly in the last decade. These newer software applications known in this paper as Smart TMSs not only save fleet owners valuable time and money but also enhances overall efficiency by automating menial and repetitive tasks that increase as fleet sizes grow. In addition, the digitization of business processes is poised to transform the country’s trucking carrier base, providing an advantageous position for early adopters while presenting existential threats for those lagging behind.

At the industry level, the adoption of modern STMS will pave the way toward a more seamlessly connected and efficient national transportation system, serving as the cornerstone of America’s world-leading supply chains and robust economy. Transporting more than 70% of the nation’s freight, the trucking industry is crucial to the everyday lives of Americans. Yet, the COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities and accelerated the need for change if many trucking businesses will continue to survive at scale.

Technology has changed key aspects of the trucking industry, with three main stages. The first stage was the development of Transportation Management Systems (TMS) as enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems for large fleets in the 1980s. Rudimentary TMS software created the benefit of digital records for large fleets. After the slow development of TMS, mobile technologies gained traction in the mid-2010s, allowing both brokers and operators to digitize. The third stage arrived in 2016, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) implemented mandatory Electronic Logging Device (ELD) regulations to enforce driver hours of service and improve safety. Connecting directly to the truckers’ Onboard Diagnostics (OBD) port, these ELDs gathered important information including drivers' hours of service, speed, locations, odometer miles, fuel levels and much more. With few exceptions, ELDs became mandatory across the country in December 2019.

Data from AT Kearney (Figure 1) shows that medium and large-sized trucking companies combine to represent 72% of the market share by revenue in the American trucking industry. In particular, large-sized fleet owners spend excessive time on repetitive tasks like duplicate data entry. Siloed data across multiple applications hinders a holistic business view, leading to errors and limiting the ability to focus on growth-related tasks. Poor integration across technology tools, including TMS software, presents a significant opportunity for future improvement across the American trucking industry.

Unlike rudimentary TMS integrations with other solutions, Smart Transportation Management Software (STMS) tends to be purpose-built to connect operational tasks, creating an efficient workflow. By verticalizing a stack of disparate technologies, STMSs lay the foundation for automating essential yet repetitive work. With connected workflows consolidating data, fleet owners gain a holistic view of their business, enabling the application of advanced analytics, including machine learning (ML), for better decision making. STMSs present a significant opportunity for trucking companies of all sizes to streamline operations and evolve into data-centric organizations, propelling their businesses into the future.

NAVIGATING CHALLENGES: THE EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF MANAGING A TRUCKING COMPANY

The trucking industry serves as one of the backbones of the United States economy. Historically, it often contributed to national emergencies such as hurricanes Katrina and Rita, as well as the respective SARS and Swine Flu Pandemics. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent recovery have put immense strain on the industry over the past four years. Challenges including supply chain disruptions, fluctuations in driver demand, warehouse closures, and varying fuel costs–from the sharp rise in diesel prices during the peak of the pandemic-induced inflation to the recent decline in prices–have compelled the industry to navigate a volatile landscape. Although retail diesel prices notably dropped by 14.5% by the end of 2023, operational costs across the industry remain subject to fluctuations. The trucking industry, which remains impacted by factors like sudden demand surges, port congestion, and supplier shutdowns, stands out among industries grappling with the repercussions of the pandemic and broader economic shifts.

According to the American Trucking Association (ATA), trucking companies suffered a record deficit of 80,000 drivers in 2021. ATA projects that by 2029 the American trucking industry will need 160,000 truck drivers (Figure 2). Driving shortages were felt worldwide with nearly 20% of driving positions going unfilled in Europe and Asia last year. Throughout the pandemic, the difficulties in managing a trucking company have only been elevated. While brokers have offered attractive freight rates, their demands for technologies from carriers have created immense difficulties for medium and large-sized fleets, making workflows increasingly inefficient.

Medium and large-sized trucking companies, constituting 53% of the industry’s revenue, represent a significant market segment that holds a distinct opportunity for innovation and operational enhancement in the 21st century. Recognizing this economic dynamic is essential for gaining insight into the pulse of the nation’s trucking industry.

This white paper aims to spotlight the accelerated technological trends within the trucking industry with a particular focus on the challenges encountered by medium and large-sized fleets. It presents opportunities for leveraging new technologies to address management challenges amid resource constraints and a post-pandemic market economy. The ultimate objective is to pave the way for a future where medium and large-sized trucking businesses can thrive within the evolving technological landscape.

THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY

Over the last few decades, technology in the trucking industry has undergone continuous evolution to address diverse needs, ranging from trucker care and safety to fleet management and expansion. In the past 40 years, this evolution can be categorized into three stages: the inception of Transportation Management Systems (TMS), the ascent of mobile technologies, and the implementation of Electronic Logging Device (ELD) regulations.

Transportation management systems (TMS) were first developed in the 1980s. Originally developed as a data storage service, these systems were intended for both large for-hire and private fleets for in-house use. Being the first of their kind within the trucking industry, these TMS softwares, even today, are extremely limited in flexibility and lack workflow orientation, with rare real-time access to carrier data.

Originally tailored for large fleets, the evolution of Transportation Management Systems (TMS) in the trucking industry has brought to light the sector’s inherent fragmentation. Medium-sized trucking fleets, alongside large-sized fleets, hold a significant portion of the trucking market share.

Visual representation of mobile usage in the trucking industry: 87% of drivers use their phones daily, shown with bold orange text on the left and a grid of 100 icons on the right, supporting the future of trucking industry and the growing role of Mobile TMS

However, they both remain underserved by dedicated software solutions. The substantial costs associated with implementing and maintaining hardware, hiring IT staff, and procuring regular updates have dissuaded both medium and large-sized fleets from embracing TMS solutions.

In the mid-2010s, a new wave of technological development encapsulated the trucking industry, namely the development of mobile phone technologies. A 2017 survey conducted by GFK Public Communications and Social, in collaboration with Samsung, found that 87% of drivers used their smartphones every day for work, spending an average of 37% of their day using their smartphones, highlighting a clear area of growth where these cellphone technologies were developed.

Digital freight brokers were crafted for mobile devices, providing brokers with a direct channel to engage with fleet owners and operators. This innovation had a twofold effect, digitizing broker operations, reducing operational costs, and simplifying market access and load-finding processes for trucking companies.

The final and most recent technological stage went into effect in 2016 when the Electronic Logging Device (ELD) mandates were published, following a multi-year attempt to establish mandatory ELD rules. While ELD development began in the 1980s, with motor carriers using them to record hours of service, these devices lacked functionality with minimal abilities. Nearly 30 years later, the FMCSA established ELD rules, which were published in 2015 and included regulations regarding the manufacturing of ELDs as well as tracking hours of service and provisions to protect drivers from harassment.

While ELD mandates are continuously changing and being tightened, the improvement of software has allowed for cloud-based ELDs to be used for real-time data and analysis. Yet, data integration with ELDs has poorly been capitalized on by fleet operators or legacy TMS trucking software, forcing operators to spend unnecessary time switching between ELD software, TMS and load boards, amongst other softwares.

Medium and large-sized fleets have been forced to adapt to these various changes and regulations far more than any other group. With an influx of data, it has only become more expensive and time-consuming to review, and ELD regulations put a further strain on these fleets.

Alongside the many changes the trucking industry has observed throughout the past few decades, the future of the technology within the trucking industry remains uncertain. With the market instability over the past four years, coupled with driver-constrained capacities, the long-range sustainability of many medium and large-sized fleets is uncertain.

Missed Opportunities: Technological Advancements for Medium and Large-Sized Fleets

The rise of artificial intelligence and machine learning are certain to have an impact within the industry, whether within various TMS software, driver care, or many other possibilities.

Optimization is at the forefront of the industry. From tasks such as finding secure, profitable, and convenient routes for truckers to predicting vehicle breakdowns to automating repetitive tasks, these various potential applications of AI are incredibly important for the industry and will save fleet owners' time and money while also ensuring driver safety and efficiency. TMS software built on 1980s or 1990s infrastructure are only slowly adapting to these revolutionary applications if at all.

While AI and ML are pressing issues in space, another future remains unclear; as autonomous vehicle companies such as Volvo and Daimler are competing for authority in this autonomous trucking space, tech startups such as TuSimple, Plus AI, and Einride, as well as heavily established vehicle companies like Tesla and Waymo are all gaining traction in autonomous vehicles. The formation of the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association signifies that change is on the horizon, as lawmakers and regulators are trying to ensure the safety and benefits of a new future.

Long exposure photo capturing the speed and motion of a cargo truck on a highway, symbolizing the future of the trucking industry, with orange tumbleweed undergrowth and dynamic light traces representing efficiency and mobility in modern freight

THE INTRODUCTION OF SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS OFFER LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

STMSs allow businesses to automate complex and repetitive business processes, streamlining businesses for simplicity and improved service. Truly a leap beyond the older TMS systems, STMS will further ease the process of managing a fleet. Because legacy TMS systems still often do not integrate between various platforms, these STMS have the potential to ease workflow through data integration, a centralized interface and automation, saving operators time and the hassle of switching between various platforms to collect data by being able to collect ELD data, BOLs, PODs, etc.

Over the next paragraphs, we will highlight how STMSs will completely reset the bar for medium-sized fleets. They offer massive opportunities to free up owners and staff, improve customer and driver care, increase margins and allow for efficient scale of medium and large-sized trucking companies.

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Transportation Management Systems have played a part in modernizing technologies for medium-sized fleets, yet have also heightened difficulties or issues that fleets face. Many medium and large fleets have resisted them, as they create more work for them. STMSs, on the other hand, can transform the daily operations of fleet owners in a way that older TMSs were never able to do. With a more centralized interface containing various data from other platforms and software, as well as AI and ML applications that can calculate various routes or proofs of deliveries and bills of lading, owners are afforded the luxury of saving time.

Graph titled 'Automation & AI will Change Demand for Skills' showing projected changes from 2026 to 2030: blue arrows pointing down for -15% data entry and -14% manual skills, and one arrow pointing up for +24% social and emotional skills, highlighting AI’s impact on the future of the trucking industry.

Allowing operators to step away from the excess of menial or repetitive tasks, an opportunity that STMSs provide, give owners the extra time that can be put into other parts of managing a fleet, such as driver care or expansion. Research from McKinsey Global Institute highlights the general changes in the skills needed within the workforce, estimating a 24% change in hours spent on Social and Emotional skills by 2030 along with a 14% decrease in physical and manual skills, generally described as “General equipment operation and navigation” and “Impacting and monitoring” (Figure 5).

These projections are directly correlated to the trucking industry, where a shift has already begun. As more medium and large-sized fleets move towards the use of advanced TMSs, the physical and manual aspects of the job will be reduced by AI, allowing drivers to spend time on the other various aspects of managing a fleet, including trucker care. Andrew James Gomez, the owner and operator of AJG Trucking said in a recent interview:

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

Smart Transportation Management Systems (STMS) target this important philosophy which values the relationship with truckers above all. By saving time and energy through the use of STMSs, owners and operators can now put important energy into trucker care. Gomez continued, saying, “You can gain operational efficiency through automation to an extent but overall automation still cannot replace relationships.”

Opportunities for an improved system are even more clear in the current market, where many owners are losing important time on tasks that could be solved with data integration provided by STMSs. Automation and data integration are incredibly important, and STMSs fill these needs perfectly, minimizing hassle for fleet owners to prioritize trucker care and build relationships.

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Transportation Management Systems have played a part in modernizing technologies for medium-sized fleets, yet have also heightened difficulties or issues that fleets face. Many medium and large fleets have resisted them, as they create more work for them. STMSs, on the other hand, can transform the daily operations of fleet owners in a way that older TMSs were never able to do. With a more centralized interface containing various data from other platforms and software, as well as AI and ML applications that can calculate various routes or proofs of deliveries and bills of lading, owners are afforded the luxury of saving time.

Allowing operators to step away from the excess of menial or repetitive tasks, an opportunity that STMSs provide, give owners the extra time that can be put into other parts of managing a fleet, such as driver care or expansion. Research from McKinsey Global Institute highlights the general changes in the skills needed within the workforce, estimating a 24% change in hours spent on Social and Emotional skills by 2030 along with a 14% decrease in physical and manual skills, generally described as “General equipment operation and navigation” and “Impacting and monitoring” (Figure 5).

These projections are directly correlated to the trucking industry, where a shift has already begun. As more medium and large-sized fleets move towards the use of advanced TMSs, the physical and manual aspects of the job will be reduced by AI, allowing drivers to spend time on the other various aspects of managing a fleet, including trucker care. Andrew James Gomez, the owner and operator of AJG Trucking said in a recent interview:

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

Smart Transportation Management Systems (STMS) target this important philosophy which values the relationship with truckers above all. By saving time and energy through the use of STMSs, owners and operators can now put important energy into trucker care. Gomez continued, saying, “You can gain operational efficiency through automation to an extent but overall automation still cannot replace relationships.”

Opportunities for an improved system are even more clear in the current market, where many owners are losing important time on tasks that could be solved with data integration provided by STMSs. Automation and data integration are incredibly important, and STMSs fill these needs perfectly, minimizing hassle for fleet owners to prioritize trucker care and build relationships.

Thrive & Survive: Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Success

In an industry as competitive as trucking, STMSs will become the dividing line between trucking companies that will flourish and those that will dwindle. In addition, the future of the trucking industry is dominated by the thoughts of self-driving technology. The possibilities appear endless with these technologies, examples being increased road safety and improved efficiency in both speeds and gas consumption. With the growth of autonomous technologies, the industry will undoubtedly be affected.

Nonetheless, in an autonomous future, the function of humans will become even more critical. The function of drivers will be different, and more critical: humans will be tasked with safety oversight, delivery in challenging conditions, last-mile delivery, etc. Like in the cockpit of a plane with autopilots, the qualifications requirements of drivers will only go up, not down. From a management and ownership perspective, social and emotional skills will be far more necessary, while the general operation and organizational skills that were previously necessary will be replaced by these AI technologies. More time will be spent on driver care and safety, as well.

Additionally, the trucking company customers will increase their requirements for customer care excellence. Included therein is the ability for their carriers to continuously digitize and give the customer an edge in their supply chain operations.

Front-facing photo of a highway with multiple trucks in motion, surrounded by green forest landscape, illustrating the future of the trucking industry with growing fleet activity and sustainable logistics.

Being customer centric as a trucking company does not just mean delivering on time and in full, but seeing how you can become a strategic partner of your customer that can ensure their success in competing against other firms. The ability of a sales team to connect, and build strategic alliances and partnerships through digital compatibility will be even more critical.

Finally, owners' time is becoming increasingly valuable. In the near future, owners of sizable fleets will need to reconsider how they utilize their most precious assets: their time, undivided attention, and emotional capacity to connect with others. This shift is essential for them to focus on areas where they can truly make a significant impact.

Imagine living today with a traditional phone, without a computer or a smartphone. STMSs constitute a similar leap in the capabilities of carriers to manage their business. Their adoption will become an existential dividing line to survive.

The Future of the
Trucking Industry for
Mid & Large-Sized Fleets

Table of Contents

NAVIGATING CHALLENGES: THE EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF MANAGING A TRUCKING COMPANY

THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY

Missed Opportunities: Technological Advancements for Medium and Large-Sized Fleets

THE INTRODUCTION OF SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS OFFER LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

Thrive & Survive: Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Success

About the Authors

Hans Galland:

Matt D’Souza:

Beto Wetter:

The Future of the Trucking Industry for Mid & Large-Sized Fleets

Table of Contents

NAVIGATING CHALLENGES: THE EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF MANAGING A TRUCKING COMPANY

THE EVOLUTION OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IN THE TRUCKING INDUSTRY

Missed Opportunities: Technological Advancements for Medium and Large-Sized Fleets

THE INTRODUCTION OF SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS OFFER LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

THE FUTURE OF TRUCKING OPERATIONS: EMBRACING SMART TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

“As great as your automation is, you’re dealing with drivers who are people. They need human connection. Relationships are still going to be the key, as in most industries.”

Thrive & Survive: Navigating Challenges for Sustainable Success

About the Authors

Matt D’Souza:

Beto Wetter:

The Future of the
Trucking Industry for
Mid & Large-Sized Fleets